Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035?
7
1kṀ1357
2034
81%
chance

Resolves YES if Greta Thunberg does any one of the following before January 1, 2035:

  • Is listed as a signatory to a major AI safety or pause statement (e.g., Future of Life Institute's "Pause Giant AI Experiments" open letter, Center for AI Safety's "Statement on AI Risk")

  • Is listed by an AI safety or pause organization (e.g., PauseAI, Future of Life Institute, Center for AI Safety) as a speaker, organizer, staff member, advisor, board member, or ambassador

  • Publishes an explicit call for an AI pause/moratorium or endorses AI safety/pause goals, citing existential or societal risks and advocating for risk-first governance or a development pause

  • Participates in a demonstration that primarily advocates for AI pause or AI safety goals

This market does NOT resolve YES if:

  • Her advocacy focuses exclusively on AI ethics issues (bias, fairness, transparency) without addressing existential or catastrophic risks

  • Her involvement concerns only near-term societal and economic impacts of AI (job displacement, inequality) without advocating for development pauses or safety-first approaches

  • Advocacy focused solely on AI's environmental impact (energy consumption, carbon footprint) without addressing existential/catastrophic risks

  • Criticism of AI companies for non-safety reasons (monopolistic practices, privacy violations, labor issues)

  • Advocacy for AI consciousness, sentience, or model rights/welfare

  • General criticism of technology or capitalism that happens to include AI

  • Brief or incidental mentions of AI risks within broader speeches/writings on other topics

  • Attendance at events where AI safety is discussed but not the primary focus

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@DanH seeing this made me do a double take. No relation 😂

The Office gif. An upset and angry Steve Carell as Michael yells, “No! God! No! God! Please! No! No! Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!”

I can't see this resolving any way but YES. In the case where it should resolve NO, the deadline is so far out that the creator is unlikely to still be active, and the criteria so conditional that a mod couldn't quickly determine it. So it'll resolve early with YES, or never resolve at all.

@DanHomerick Why do you think a mod couldn't determine it?

@Simon74fe because it's tough to prove a negative, and a simple search wouldn't be sufficient to evaluate all the criteria details.

Why do you think a mod could resolve it?

@DanHomerick Ask the "Yes" holders and a good LLM if there is any evidence it should resolve YES. Otherwise resolve it to "No".

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