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That did hurt. What did I miss when projections showed 5.2 and 5.3 for CDU? Old people don't use mail-in voting that much?

5.2 and 5.3 was based on exit polls, it can always move a bit. CDU actually does better with mail-in, but maybe not by as much as the models assumed this time

@Simon74fe I was talking about the first (and second) Hochrechnungen, not the exit polls. Do you know whether there are information about mail-in voters' votes anywhere?

@Primer Ah right, then those contained a few counts already, but probably still somewhat uncertain. Regarding mail-in, there is data, but not in aggregate:
https://wahlen.mvnet.de/dateien/ergebnisse.2026/landtagswahl/csv/l_wahlbezirke.csv

According to Claude, CDU got 7.5 % by post vs 3.9 % at the urn

@Simon74fe Weird. I don't understand the trajectories then, as mail-in votes are said to be counted later during the count. Maybe that's not correct anymore.

Anyways: Thanks!

They are counted later and the institutes correct for them being higher CDU, maybe they overcorrected

@Simon74fe Now I feel stupid, but at least I know why I lost around half of my 3+ year profit over this: I wasn't aware of those corrections. As long as I don't know whether and when institutes change their way of correcting this, I'll better refrain from live-betting during counts.

Again: Thanks! ♥️

I have never felt so vindicated

Looks like it will be close to 4.90%

As close as it gets

Both institutes at 5.0

@Simon74fe I'm at 90%, but not willing to fight on those margins. Yes order up at 83% if you're interested.

@Primer I'm at 80%, if you want we can trade some at 85%

@Simon74fe Running out of funds here 😜 You don't happen to know how I can get a loan against my shares here?

Edit: Nevermind, found some Mana