Inflection.ai is developing powerful AI systems which may be powerful enough to cause human extinction, by misuse or by misalignment.
Will Inflection.ai cause human extinction in the next 5 years?
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Inflection might train models 100x the size of GPT-4 within 18 months. Unclear if "we" means Inflection or humanity in this article. https://www.barrons.com/articles/ai-chatbot-siri-alexa-inflection-pi-fa1809f8
@Nikola A model with 100x more compute than GPT-4 (not the same thing as 100x the size but let's ignore that) would make me very worried (the 10x jump between gpt-3 and gpt-4 had huge emergent capabilities), and combined with today's safety measures, I'd assign at least 3% on that causing a global catastrophe
@Nikola From 80k podcast (around 49 minute mark): Inflection.ai is currently training a model "significantly larger than GPT-4".
They might now have the biggest GPU cluster (1E27 FLOP training run this year a possibility): https://twitter.com/gcolbourn/status/1677346193720983552