Will there be armed conflict between left- and right-wing US extremists before 2030? (10v10 & 100v100)

Counts as an armed conflict if:

10 v 10

• At least 10 individuals inside the US carry firearms on each side, and attempt to use them

• At least 1 wounded or dead on each side

• Majority of each side appears to identify with extreme left & extreme right, respectively

• All in the same area (e.g. within a city)

• Exchange of multiple shots

• Excluded: tit-for-tat murders of unarmed individuals where there's no exchange of fire

100 v 100

• At least 100 individuals inside the US carry firearms on each side, and attempt to use them

• At least 5 wounded on each side

• At least 1 dead on each side

• Majority of each side appears to identify with extreme left & extreme right, respectively

• If 'simultaneous' (same-day) skirmishes occur at 'different' locations (1 city ~ 1 location), each skirmish (exchange of multiple shots) with at least 5 combatants on each side counts towards the total. Double counting will be avoided.

• Excluded: e.g. tit-for-tat murders of unarmed individuals where there's no exchange of fire

Disclaimers:

I will not bet in this market.

I strongly condemn any attempts to increase the likelihood of these events occurring - they would be immoral and catastrophic for everyone involved.

• Update 2024-21-12 (PST): - A conflict with 100+ armed individuals on one side and 10+ armed individuals on the other side will count as a 10v10 conflict (assuming all other criteria are met) (AI summary of creator comment)