Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the number of homicides recorded in Mexico on January 18, 2026 exceeds 55. Resolution will be based on preliminary homicide data published by Mexico's Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection (SSPC) through their daily homicide report, accessible at El Crimen's daily tally. The market resolves NO if the recorded count is 55 or fewer.

Background

Mexico recorded an average of 52.4 homicides per day in December 2025, and an average of 64 homicides per day across 2025. During the first two days of 2026, a total of 90 victims of intentional homicide were reported nationwide, suggesting elevated early-year violence. 49 killings were recorded across the country during the first 24 hours of the year.

Considerations reports prepared by state prosecutors' offices and public security agencies, which may differ from official records later consolidated by institutions such as INEGI or SESNSP, which refine and validate the data based on judicial and prosecutorial case files. The threshold of 55 homicides is slightly above the December 2025 daily average but below the 2025 annual average, making this a close call dependent on daily volatility.