Will any of the following Western countries experience a national homicide rate above 10 per 100,000 per year before 2030? | Manifold

Will any of the following Western countries experience a national homicide rate above 10 per 100,000 per year before 2030?

5

46

Ṁ53

Ṁ130

2030

40%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

WEIRD = Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Developed.

List of WEIRD countries for the purposes of this market:

Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
France
Greece
Germany
Iceland
Italy
Latvia
Luxembourg
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States

Must be the homicide rate for a calendar year, not (for example) a specific month or week.

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WEIRD Doomsday questions

Will any of my current or future "WEIRD doomsday" markets resolve to YES by 2030?

Will more than 1% of young men ages 25-35 in any of the following Western countries die during a single calendar year before 2030?

Related questions

Will there be more homicides in 2024 than in 2023?

Will homicides return to pre-BLM levels by 2030?

Will at least 20% of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Will life expectancy in any country pass 90 before 2040?

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?

Will El Salvador's murder rate be below 10 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2030?

Will any of the following Western countries attempt to annex another country before 2030?

Will more than ten "national level" politicians in any single western country be killed within twelve months of each other before 2030?