Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?
91
2kṀ24k
2031
14%
chance

The life doesn't need to be intelligent to count. Can be microbes on Mars or some exoplanet. I define strong evidence for this market to mean that a majority of scientists would agree that it's aliens and not something else (note: not consensus, just majority). The reason I'm setting this standard is that I don't think it will be realistic to find conclusive, incontroversial evidence.

Some examples for what counts as strong evidence:

  • Biosignatures on an exoplanet, once the studies showing them have been replicated, confirmed, and accepted by the scientific community.

  • Similar level of evidence inside the solar system. A confident announcement by NASA can also count, as long as it's not "maybe we found aliens" but rather "we are confident that we found aliens"

  • UFO evidence that has been shown to have intelligent extraterristrial origin (just being unknown is not enough), well-studied and accepted by scientists.

What doesn't count:

  • Some study showing what might be a biosignature on another planet

  • NASA saying that they found something that might be associated with life on Mars or another planet.

  • UFOs that are confirmed by the US government, but there's no significant positive evidence that it is, in fact, aliens

  • Mexican aliens, unless there's some very significant new evidence released.

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