Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2032?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, by December 31, 2032, there is a presentation of evidence of extraterrestrial life. The evidence must fulfill the following criteria:

  1. Publication in a Recognized Scientific Journal: The evidence must be detailed in at least one peer-reviewed publication in a high-impact scientific journal of substantial academic standing. Fields pertinent to this evidence include astronomy, astrobiology, or related scientific disciplines. Journals such as 'Nature' and 'Science' are exemplary, but others of comparable status are also valid.

  2. Confirmation by Space Exploration Authorities: The evidence must be independently confirmed or endorsed by at least two esteemed space exploration agencies or governmental bodies. Possible agencies include, but are not limited to, NASA (United States), ESA (European Space Agency), Roscosmos (Russia), CNSA (China National Space Administration), or ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation).

  3. Requirement for Direct and Unequivocal Evidence: The evidence must be direct and unequivocal, such as direct observations or physical samples, rather than indirect indications or substances believed to be indicative of life.

The market resolves to 'No' if, by the end of 2032, none of these criteria are met. This includes scenarios where findings are published in recognized journals but lack independent confirmation by the necessary agencies, or if confirmations are made without a corresponding high-impact, peer-reviewed publication, or if the evidence is not direct and unequivocal.

Note: The market will resolve to 'Yes' if all the criteria are met at any time up to and including December 31, 2032.

Additionally, the evidence can pertain to either past or present extraterrestrial life, encompassing findings such as fossilized biological material or current life forms.


26th December 2023 - clarification concerning question in comments cection

Clarifications on 'Extraterrestrial Life':

  • Discovery of a Single-Celled Organism on Europa: The discovery of a unique single-celled organism on Europa would count as a 'Yes', provided this discovery meets the publication and confirmation criteria outlined earlier. This discovery would be considered direct evidence of biological life beyond Earth.

  • Discovery/Revelation of a Sterilized Non-Human Device: The discovery or revelation of a device of non-human origin, even if it demonstrates advanced technology, would not count as evidence of extraterrestrial life under this market's criteria. This market specifically seeks biological or organic evidence. Therefore, a technologically advanced but sterilized device, which provides no information about biological entities, would be categorized as a 'No' in this context. The focus is on direct evidence of living organisms or their biological remnants, not solely technological artifacts.

This "Update" clarifies that the market is focused on biological evidence, distinctly excluding technological artifacts unless they directly indicate the presence of biological life.

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