Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2033?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, by December 31, 2033, evidence of extraterrestrial life is presented, adhering to the following criteria:

  1. Publication in a Recognized Scientific Journal: The evidence must be documented in at least one peer-reviewed article in a high-impact scientific journal of notable academic standing. Relevant fields include astronomy, astrobiology, or similar scientific disciplines. Journals such as 'Nature' and 'Science' are prime examples, but other journals of similar repute are also acceptable.

  2. Confirmation by Space Exploration Authorities: The evidence must be independently confirmed or endorsed by at least two reputable space exploration agencies or government bodies. Agencies that qualify include, but are not limited to, NASA (United States), ESA (European Space Agency), Roscosmos (Russia), CNSA (China National Space Administration), or ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation).

  3. Requirement for Direct and Unequivocal Evidence: The evidence presented must be direct and unequivocal, such as direct observations or physical samples, and not merely indirect indications or substances believed to be indicative of life.

The market will resolve to 'No' if, by the end of 2033, none of these criteria are satisfied. This includes situations where findings are published in respected journals but lack confirmation by the specified agencies, or if confirmations are declared without an accompanying high-impact, peer-reviewed publication, or if the evidence is not direct and unequivocal.

Note: The market will resolve to 'Yes' if all the criteria are met at any point up to and including December 31, 2033.

Additionally, the evidence can pertain to either past or present extraterrestrial life, encompassing findings such as fossilized biological material or current life forms.


26th December 2023 - clarification concerning question in comments cection

Clarifications on 'Extraterrestrial Life':

  • Discovery of a Single-Celled Organism on Europa: The discovery of a unique single-celled organism on Europa would count as a 'Yes', provided this discovery meets the publication and confirmation criteria outlined earlier. This discovery would be considered direct evidence of biological life beyond Earth.

  • Discovery/Revelation of a Sterilized Non-Human Device: The discovery or revelation of a device of non-human origin, even if it demonstrates advanced technology, would not count as evidence of extraterrestrial life under this market's criteria. This market specifically seeks biological or organic evidence. Therefore, a technologically advanced but sterilized device, which provides no information about biological entities, would be categorized as a 'No' in this context. The focus is on direct evidence of living organisms or their biological remnants, not solely technological artifacts.

This "Update" clarifies that the market is focused on biological evidence, distinctly excluding technological artifacts unless they directly indicate the presence of biological life.

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In all your markets on extraterrestrial life, does discovering signs of ancient extraterrestrial life count? If, say, we find conclusive evidence that life existed on Mars millions of years ago, will these questions resolve as YES?

@wadimiusz I will clarify by adding “past or present”. Thanks!

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