How long will it take the Israeli army to conquer all of Gaza?
20
189
แน€1k
2025
45%
N/A
0.5%
1 month
0.3%
2 months
0.4%
4 months
0.6%
6 months
13%
9 months
34%
A year
5%
2 years
2%
More than 2 years

Right now, it seems like Israel plans to invade Gaza with the intent of at least temporarily occupying its entirety. The clock on this market started in the evening of the 27th of October, when the invasion began, and will stop when the IDF achieves full territorial control over the Gaza Strip. It will count as full control even if there's still some guerilla warfare and terrorist attacks going on, they just need to have territorial control. The time that it takes is rounded up, so 1.5 months will count as 2 months for resolution.

There is an N/A option that you can bet on. The market will resolve to this option if:

a) Israel retreats without completely conquering Gaza

b) The war ends otherwise with no conquest of Gaza

The usual Manifold N/A option may still be used until normal circumstances - If there is a lot of ambiguity in the resolution.

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It looks like invasion started on the evening of October 27. Timer starts then.

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