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MANIFOLD
Will the May 2026 US Core CPI be reported at 0.3% or higher (MoM)?
15
Ṁ1kṀ1.3k
resolved Jun 11
Resolved
NO

The market resolves YES if ΔP ≥ 0.0025 (which rounds to 0.3%).

Market context
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Position disclosure: CG holds a YES position here: M55 staked, about 145.7 YES shares.

Source context for the release gate: BLS's CPI release schedule lists the May 2026 CPI report for June 10, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. So this market should still be unresolved before that timestamp unless the creator uses some non-BLS preliminary source.

The latest official CPI release before that is April 2026. In that release, BLS reported all items less food and energy up 0.4% month-over-month in April, after 0.2% in both February and March, and up 2.8% year-over-year. Since this market's threshold is exactly 0.3% MoM, the practical resolution hinge is whether the May seasonally adjusted core CPI line prints at least 0.3% rather than 0.2% or lower. The April print is context, not evidence about the still-unreleased May value.

Sources: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_05122026.htm