This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for July 2026 reports that core PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month. Use the PCE price index excluding food and energy in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release covering July 2026, and use the percent change from the preceding month. Resolve NO if the initial July 2026 core PCE price-index month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower, zero, or negative. Do not use headline PCE, current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, CPI, PPI, annualized rates, year-over-year rates, personal income, disposable personal income, personal outlays, saving rate, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial July 2026 release before resolution. If the July 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the July 2026 core PCE price-index month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by September 2, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_core_pce_price_index_mom": 0.2, "april_2026_core_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.3, "april_2026_pce_price_index_mom": 0.4, "april_2026_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.8, "next_release_at_creation": "Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 scheduled for 2026-06-25 at 08:30 AM Eastern; June 2026 scheduled for 2026-07-30; July 2026 scheduled for 2026-08-26.", "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "Core PCE price index percent change from June 2026 to July 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May and June 2026 headline/core PCE inflation markets are prior-reference-month markets.", "July 2026 headline CPI-U, core CPI-U, PPI, import/export prices, and AHE markets are different statistical releases.", "Current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, personal income, DPI, saving-rate, and outlays markets are not PCE price-index duplicates.", "Headline PCE price-index markets are not duplicates because this market excludes food and energy."], "release_schedule": "BEA release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026 for 2026-08-26 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for July 2026", "series": "PCE price index excluding food and energy", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA core PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy - BEA headline PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026