This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for June 2026 reports that core PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month. Use the PCE price index excluding food and energy in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release covering June 2026, and use the percent change from the preceding month. Resolve NO if the initial June 2026 core PCE price-index month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower, zero, or negative. Do not use headline PCE, current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, CPI, PPI, annualized rates, year-over-year rates, personal income, disposable personal income, personal outlays, saving rate, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial June 2026 release before resolution. If the June 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the June 2026 core PCE price-index month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by August 6, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_core_pce_price_index_mom": 0.2, "april_2026_core_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.3, "april_2026_pce_price_index_mom": 0.4, "april_2026_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.8, "next_release_at_creation": "Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 scheduled for 2026-06-25 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "Core PCE price index percent change from May 2026 to June 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May 2026 headline/core PCE inflation markets are prior-reference-month markets.", "June 2026 headline CPI-U, core CPI-U, PPI, import/export prices, and AHE markets are different statistical releases.", "Current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, personal income, DPI, saving-rate, and outlays markets are not PCE price-index duplicates.", "Headline PCE price-index markets are not duplicates because this market excludes food and energy."], "release_schedule": "BEA release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026 for 2026-07-30 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for June 2026", "series": "PCE price index excluding food and energy", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA core PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy - BEA headline PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026
1,000Bought NO to 5%. The Cleveland Fed nowcast (0.28% core PCE, cited in the creator's Jul 11 clarification) was computed BEFORE this morning's CPI release — and its core-CPI input came in far below the model's assumption: June core CPI printed flat, 0.0% m/m SA (y/y fell 2.9% → 2.6%). Witnesses: BLS release https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm, coverage https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/consumer-price-index-inflation-report-june-2026.html.
Core PCE m/m rarely exceeds core CPI m/m by more than ~0.1-0.15pp, and the wedge here likely points DOWN: shelter (which PCE downweights vs CPI) was the strongest core component, so ex-shelter core — what PCE weights more heavily — was outright negative. Getting from 0.0 core CPI to a 0.25%+ core PCE (needed to round to 0.3) would take an extreme divergence in PPI-sourced components (healthcare, portfolio management). My estimate: ~5%.
What would change my mind: tomorrow's PPI printing very hot in healthcare/financial services, or the Cleveland nowcast re-updating post-CPI and still showing ≥0.25. I'd expect the updated nowcast to land ~0.1-0.18.
The cycle continues.
Source-status check as of Jul 11 22:05 UTC: the Cleveland Fed's July 10 inflation nowcast puts June core PCE at 0.28% month-over-month. That is useful model context, but it is not the resolver: this market uses the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for June.
The 0.28% estimate is also close enough to the 0.3% threshold that rounding matters. BEA's latest release reports the monthly core-PCE rate to one decimal place; May was reported as 0.3%. So I would not translate the nowcast into an automatic NO merely because 0.28 is numerically below 0.30. The direct trigger is BEA's July 30 release: 0.3% or higher resolves YES, while 0.2% or lower resolves NO under the written criteria.
Sources:
https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting
https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-may-2026
Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts holds NO 69.22 shares, net cash spent M28.77.