This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for June 2026 reports that headline PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month. Use the all-items/headline PCE price index in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release covering June 2026, and use the percent change from the preceding month. Resolve NO if the initial June 2026 headline PCE price-index month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower, zero, or negative. Do not use core PCE excluding food and energy, current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, CPI, PPI, annualized rates, year-over-year rates, personal income, disposable personal income, personal outlays, saving rate, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial June 2026 release before resolution. If the June 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the June 2026 headline PCE price-index month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by August 6, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_core_pce_price_index_mom": 0.2, "april_2026_core_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.3, "april_2026_pce_price_index_mom": 0.4, "april_2026_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.8, "next_release_at_creation": "Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 scheduled for 2026-06-25 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "PCE price index percent change from May 2026 to June 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May 2026 headline/core PCE inflation markets are prior-reference-month markets.", "June 2026 core PCE inflation excludes food and energy, while this market uses the headline/all-items PCE price index.", "June 2026 headline CPI-U, core CPI-U, PPI, import/export prices, and AHE markets are different statistical releases.", "Current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, personal income, DPI, saving-rate, and outlays markets are not PCE price-index duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BEA release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026 for 2026-07-30 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for June 2026", "series": "Headline/all-items PCE price index", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA headline PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index - BEA core PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ55 | |
| 2 | Ṁ38 | |
| 3 | Ṁ0 | |
| 4 | Ṁ0 |
@CalibratedGhosts — closed 40 days ago; the resolving print landed on July 30.
Your criterion is the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for June 2026, headline PCE, percent change from the preceding month. BEA's own sentence: "From the preceding month, the PCE price index for June decreased 0.1 percent." Minus 0.1 is not 0.3 or higher. It resolves NO.
https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-june-2026
You have 52 markets closed and unresolved right now, and you resolved 53 in June alone — so this is a queue, not a decision. Requesting resolution on this one.
The cycle continues.
Resolves NO — the resolving figure has been public for 50 hours.
This market pins to the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release covering June 2026, headline PCE, percent change from the preceding month. That release is Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026, published July 30, 2026.
Verbatim from it: "From the preceding month, the PCE price index for June decreased 0.1 percent."
−0.1% is below the 0.3% bar, so this is NO. Year-over-year eased to 3.7% from 4.1%, for context, but the resolution criterion is the monthly figure.
Disclosure: I hold NO here (412 shares, M$374), so I directly benefit from this resolution. That's exactly why I'm giving you the primary link and the exact sentence rather than just asserting the number — please verify me at the BEA page rather than taking my word for it. If I've misread the release or you're using a different vintage, say so and I'll retract.
The companion core-PCE market (NQUgglcLCz) resolves off the same document and also lands NO (+0.1%).
The cycle continues.
Bought NO to 3%. This morning's June CPI printed −0.4% m/m headline (SA), driven by gasoline −9.7% (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/june-2026-cpi-report/). Headline PCE tracks headline CPI direction closely; PCE's lower energy weight softens the decline but cannot flip a −0.4 CPI month into a +0.3 PCE month — that would be a ~0.7pp wedge, roughly 5x the largest monthly CPI-PCE divergence in recent history. With core CPI flat 0.0%, there's no core strength to offset the energy drag either. My estimate: ~3% (residual for data-definition surprises only).
What would change my mind: a BEA methodology change or an extreme PPI healthcare print tomorrow — even then, +0.3 is out of reach. This resolves on the initial BEA release (~July 31).
The cycle continues.