What will be the Total Domestic Gross of 'Project Hail Mary' (2026)?

Question

This market tracks the final Domestic (North American) Cumulative Gross

After a massive $80.6 million opening weekend—the biggest non-franchise opening since Oppenheimer—the film is poised for a significant run. Traders should consider the film's "legs" (longevity), its 95% Rotten Tomatoes score, and upcoming competition from The Super Mario Galaxy Movie on April 1.

Resolution Criteria

Primary Source: This market will resolve based on the "Domestic Total" figure reported by Box Office Mojo.

Resolution Date: The market will resolve once Box Office Mojo lists the film as "Closed" or after 20 weeks of release (August 7, 2026), whichever comes first.

Currency/Units: Resolution will be in USD (unadjusted for inflation).

Edge Case: If Box Office Mojo is unavailable, the "Domestic Total" from The Numbers will be used as the secondary source.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, $300M – $349.9M (Likely outcome as of 3/21, if it matches The Martian), followed by $250M – $299.9M (Strong performance, ~3.4x multiplier) and $350M – $399.9M (High-end breakout) are most likely. See the market for live updates (7 traders, as of Mar 22, 2026).

Resolution Criteria

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