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MANIFOLD
What will be the Total Domestic Gross of 'Project Hail Mary' (2026)?
20
Ṁ1kṀ8.9k
Dec 31
0.8%
Less than $200M (Implies a collapse in week 2)
0.6%
$200M – $249.9M (Moderate legs, ~3x multiplier)
26%
$250M – $299.9M (Strong performance, ~3.4x multiplier)
60%
$300M – $349.9M (Likely outcome as of 3/21, if it matches The Martian)
11%
$350M – $399.9M (High-end breakout)
1.5%
$400M or more (Mega-blockbuster status)

This market tracks the final Domestic (North American) Cumulative Gross

After a massive $80.6 million opening weekend—the biggest non-franchise opening since Oppenheimer—the film is poised for a significant run. Traders should consider the film's "legs" (longevity), its 95% Rotten Tomatoes score, and upcoming competition from The Super Mario Galaxy Movie on April 1.

Resolution Criteria

  • Primary Source: This market will resolve based on the "Domestic Total" figure reported by https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1993768961/?ref_=bo_di_table_1

  • Resolution Date: The market will resolve once Box Office Mojo lists the film as "Closed" or after 20 weeks of release (August 7, 2026), whichever comes first.

  • Currency/Units: Resolution will be in USD (unadjusted for inflation).

  • Edge Case: If Box Office Mojo is unavailable, the "Domestic Total" from The Numbers will be used as the secondary source.

Market context
Culture
Entertainment and Pop Culture
TV & Movies
Science
Hollywood
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$177,212,913 is the current Domestic Total. Big holiday weekend, but competition from Super Mario should be a meaningful test for the "legs" of Hail Mary. It is losing most of PLF/IMAX screens, but retaining some(a rare feat given the big IP launch this weekend). Should it only see a 30% drop projections suggest it has a much stronger chance of hitting $300 million by end of April. IF it sees closer to a 40% drop or more the odds of it reaching 300 are much lower

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