How many different divisions will be in Manifold Leagues by December 2023
19
900Ṁ3107
resolved Dec 7
100%96%
6
1.8%
7
0.7%
0 (Leagues will be removed before then)
0.7%
5
0.4%
8
0.2%
9
0.2%
10+
0.2%
1-4

By close date, resolves to the amount of different league brackets (Bronze, Silver, Gold, Platinum, etc.) there are in Manifold Leagues when the December season commences (probably Dec 2nd/3rd). The brackets must actually have human trader accounts in them at that point in time, just knowing that people will promote to a bracket doesn't make it count.

If the seasons aren't aligned by month anymore, resolves to the amount of league brackets that have traders in them by Dec 3rd 12:00 AM UTC.

Leagues with only bots don't count.

I will bet a bit of mana on a couple of the options in the beginning, but I'm not going to bet again after that.

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@ShadowyZephyr Resolves to 6, I believe. Masters, Diamond, Platinum, Gold, Silver, Bronze. Silicon doesn't count per comments below.

Why does 5 have such a high probability? We already know there will be one higher than Diamond, which puts it at 6. Do people think the "???" League is going to be removed? Why would that happen?

@JosephNoonan Maybe they decide six is unweildy and pare them down a bit. But overall, I think your analysis is spot-on and I bidded 5 down.

Does the Bots league count?

@JamesGrugett No, I should specify that. By traders I meant humans

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