Will GPT 4.5 come out in December?
Will GPT 4.5 come out in December?
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1.3kṀ73kresolved Jan 1
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NO1H
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Whatever model OpenAI publicly identifies as GPT 4.5 will count.
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predictedNO 1y
Why is this market at 3% when the market where the author guaranteed a NO resolution on the 28th is still at 4%?
In a year, will I think Manifold has been a good use of my time? | Manifold
https://twitter.com/AiBreakfast/status/1736392167906574634
Was GPT-4.5 Turbo released in stealth?
Numerous ChatGPT Plus users are getting this response.
bought Ṁ100 NO from 17% to 16% 1y
"I’m more excited on some open source models coming out soon ;) but keep an eye out on a potential end of December gpt 4.5 drop and new multimodal from Anthropic."
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.