Will OpenAI announce a GPT-4 successor shortly after Google releases Gemini?
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"Shortly after" being after <1 month, counting from the day Gemini is available in any form (Bard, GCP, etc) to external users (can be behind a waitlist).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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To my knowledge, OpenAI generally hasn't announced new GPT models in advance (There were only rumors about GPT-4, until the model itself was released). Altman testified in spring that GPT-5 was not in training yet, and from the base rate between GPT systems it should be at least a year (or likely longer since many engineers are probably occupied with improving GPT-4)
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