In a year, will I think Manifold has been a good use of my time?
resolved Dec 29

I will bet in this market to reflect my current feelings.

EDIT (9/3/2023): see comment below. I've sold my positions. Happy to answer questions though.

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bought Ṁ4,490 of NO

You know you've getting a good dopamine game system going when a lot of users are making it a new years resolution for quitting the site in 2024!!! Maybe with negative balances on 2023 resolutions dreams of few will become reality for many, good luck to all! Happy New Year and see you on StayFocusd!

bought Ṁ1 of YES

Your mind would be changed by a bribe

@Traveel No. A bribe would make me resent being here even more.

predicted YES

@NicoDelon how prevalent do you think bribes currently are on Manifold?

@Jacy Good question. There’s always been collusion behind closed doors. I suspect many subjective markets are influenced by bribes and some ‘objective’ ones are.

@SirSalty May be worth doing an exit interview here, Nico's been a positive member of the site and I think Manifold should try to figure out how to be "worth it" for people in similar positions.

bought Ṁ1 YES at 5%

@IsaacKing Thanks, I appreciate it. For the record, it ain’t all negative. Otherwise I wouldn’t be here (I hope!). But the value has to be high to justify the time I spend here, and I’d be lying to myself if I rationalized it—I am spending a lot of time I could better spend elsewhere even if I can’t help it.

@NicoDelon Would definitely love to sit in a call with u for 10 mins and get some feedback and hear some departing thoughts if u would be down for it. Thanks for enjoying Manifold with us all! Hope u put ur time to better use elsewhere ^^

We are trying to make moves that make Manifold better for people who just want to periodically check it for updates so hopefully u might still find occasional value in it!

@SirSalty I’m not gone yet! But yeah if/when I leave I’d love to chat.

Feel free to bet this down. I guarantee a NO resolution. It’s been fun but come on.

6 traders bought Ṁ10,600 NO

@PatMyron 😭

I’ve recently lost interest in Manifold, especially in investing in it longterm. I no longer enjoy it as much as I used to; it’s eating up way too much of my time; I’ve found recent user trends especially annoying; and I don’t think I’ve earned the favors of Manifold staff for raising my voice about certain things. All in all, I’m spending a lot of time I could be spending in much more fruitful ways. My plan is to liquidate most of my positions over the next few months. I doubt I’ll liquidate all of them before the end of the year, and I have large positions in markets I’d like to see resolved before I quit. When I’ve collected profits from those markets, I’ll give away most of my balance to charities and then phase out my involvement until all my own markets are resolved. It’s been fun but overall I don’t think the opportunity costs are justified.


bought Ṁ1 YES at 25%

@NicoDelon I would be curious to learn what recent trends you find annoying and hope I am not contributing to them

@Soli Not at all. My comment predates your arrival (I think). It’s a mix of many things and I’d rather not rehash it here. You’re a good user, worry not!

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@umnikos This market is not asking whether Manifold itself is a problem. Problems with Manifold have contributed to my decision but that’s not the original question. You’re projecting. But thanks for your immensely compassionate and insightful contribution.

sold Ṁ63 of NO

I’ve decided to sell my positions in all my subjective markets. Not because I’ve changed my mind one way or another. The positions I’ve held until now roughly reflect my current credence.

the irony of voting no on this

predicted NO

@NicoDelon using manifold to vote against the utility of using manifold (not that I disagree)

predicted NO

@LokWenBin No one is voting. We’re betting on what I will think at the end of the year.

predicted NO

@NicoDelon I'm neither voting nor betting, I'm projecting

predicted NO

@Odoacre 😭

How much time (roughly) do you currently spend in the platform? I would expect a much higher Yes probability of you use it in moderation as opposed to spending away free moment on it.

predicted NO

@jonsimon Good question. Maybe an hour total everyday. Some days more.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@NicoDelon Doesn't sound too bad then. Just don't start buying Mana with real money, that makes the regret probability much higher 😜

predicted NO

@jonsimon LOL no.

predicted NO

@NicoDelon FWIW it’s been over an hour daily recently—time off—and with increased use comes increased frustration with a few users.

bought Ṁ40 of NO

@NicoDelon Updates: a lot more than an hour every day. Addictive and distracting. I’m enjoying it but I’d rather not. It’s become a major time sink.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@NicoDelon I know how you feel