Polostan has now been announced here in April, for an October date. As mentioned earlier 4-6 months before release:

https://nealstephenson.com/news/2024/04/25/announcing-polostan,-on-sale-october-15,-2024/

From the #1 New York Times bestselling author of Termination Shock and Cryptonomicon, the first installment in a monumental new series—an expansive historical epic of intrigue and international espionage, presaging the dawn of the Atomic Age.

The first installment in Neal Stephenson’s Bomb Light cycle, Polostan follows the early life of the enigmatic Dawn Rae Bjornberg. Born in the American West to a clan of cowboy anarchists, Dawn is raised in Leningrad after the Russian Revolution by her Russian father, a party line Leninist who re-christens her Aurora. She spends her early years in Russia but then grows up as a teenager in Montana, before being drawn into gunrunning and revolution in the streets of Washington, D.C., during the depths of the Great Depression. When a surprising revelation about her past puts her in the crosshairs of U.S. authorities, Dawn returns to Russia, where she is groomed as a spy by the organization that later becomes the KGB.

Set against the turbulent decades of the early twentieth century, Polostan is an inventive, richly detailed, and deeply entertaining historical epic, and the start of a captivating new series from Neal Stephenson.

I bought to 97% based on this announcement.

I found he normally publishes an announcement of a book on his blog approximately 4-6 months before the book releases.

You can see the pattern for recent releases here:

https://nealstephenson.com/news/2021/06/03/announcing-termination-shock/

This would probably be a good place to watch if you wanted to know if he announced a new book. His publisher would probably be another place.

That's trading pretty high, what is the news?

@Eliza They're advertising a new novel from him in September 2024: https://www.harpercollins.com/products/polostan-neal-stephenson?variant=41314834120738

@RachelFreedman I'm going to register some doubt then, based on my past experience informing me that books are often given a publication date on a placeholder schedule even when they are not actually ready. With no cover art and no publisher announcement, my doubt sensors are pinging.

@RachelFreedman The date has been updated from September 2024 to 15 October 2024 and there is an official announcement!

So it was pushed a little bit, but still looks like 2024 is safe.

I think ~70-80% was still a fair place for this to sit before the official announcement, it could easily have been pushed to 2025.