Will the U.S. military be defeated by a rogue AI before 2035?
27
1kṀ25052035
9%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Includes things like:
-"AI hijacks nuclear capabilities, and then nukes the U.S. army into defeat."
-"Everyone on Earth (American or not) falls over dead in a nanobot attack from an AI."
-"America is conquered by a drone army that wasn't following human orders."
-"The U.S. army fails to prevent a rogue AI from poisoning the atmosphere, and society collapses."
Does not include things like:
-"U.S. loses a proxy war somewhere due to another government's autonomous drones."
-"AI helps an opposing human army with strategic decisions, who go on to defeat the U.S. military."
-"U.S. army communications get spoofed into incorrectly announcing defeat by AI."
I will not trade this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will AI become a strategic geopolitical weapon by 2040?
80% chance
Will humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?
9% chance
Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?
32% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?
9% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030?
4% chance
Will there be a war over AI before 2035?
34% chance
Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2030?
15% chance
Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030?
12% chance
Will an AI become president of the United States before 2040?
6% chance
Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2035?
10% chance