Will Curtis Yarvin ("Mencius Moldbug") be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
24
166
Ṁ1.8KṀ490
2029
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Curtis Yarvin ("Mencius Moldbug", political blogger and software engineer) has been criminally charged with any felony crime.
Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030. Part of a large question series.
Question is global -- charges in any country count.
Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if he was found not guilty.
Minor misdemeanors do not count, only more serious (i.e. "felony") charges.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will Robert Wiblin (charity organizer, researcher and podcaster) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
5% chance
Will Marc Andreessen be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
9% chance
Will Luke Muehlhauser (Open Philanthropy, AI governance) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
2% chance
Will Justin Sun (founder of Tron) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
67% chance
Will William MacAskill (philosopher and activist) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
2% chance
Will Ron DeSantis (American politician, attorney) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
37% chance
Will Austin Chen (Manifold cofounder) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
5% chance
Will Jesse Lang (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
21% chance
Will Elon Musk be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
13% chance
Will Ye West (Kanye West) be charged of any felony crime before 2030?
17% chance