Will Changpeng Zhao ("CZ", cofounder of Binance exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
resolved Dec 17

Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Changpeng Zhao ("CZ", co-founder of Binance) has been criminally charged (or indicted) with any felony crime. Note that a lawsuit (e.g. a CFTC lawsuit) is inadequate -- he must be charged by the police or indicted by a grand jury, or the equivalent in other countries.

Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030. Part of a large question series.

Question is global -- charges in any country count.

Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if they are not found not guilty.

Examples that count: wire fraud, perjury, assault, arson, theft.
Examples that don't count: littering, possession of small amounts of marijuana.

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predicted YES

@ScroogeMcDuck please resolve

predicted NO

@octothorpe Thank you! And sorry for the delay!

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES
predicted NO

@Haws Sorry for the delay, and thank you for the prompt.

It's clear CZ has been criminally charged by the Department of Justice and the Treasury Department, and will plead guilty. This fully counts as "YES".

Does anyone have any objections?

predicted YES

@ScroogeMcDuck I believe money laundering is a felony crime but I am no lawyer lol.


Charges are official, and he just had a bail hearing (I think he put up 175M as bond with a collection of other assets and friend's assets).

And no worries about any delay, we got lives haha (not rly).

predicted NO

Slight clarification in the description, that a CFTC lawsuit doesn't count. Must be either criminal charges or an indictment, or the equivalent in other non-U.S. countries.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I've made a new Twitter account for these markets, and I've sent a tweet to CZ letting him know about this market. Also bought a non-speculative (small) NO position, as a gesture of goodwill.

predicted NO


I'll tip info here or DM me. Anyone got any?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I intend to donate most of my wealth, as many other entrepreneurs or founders have done, from Peabody to today. I intend to donate 90%, 95%, or 99% of my wealth. [CZ]

Interesting! I didn't know. This makes me think felonies are less likely, though I'm aware that recent evidence may have made a dent in that assumption.

bought Ṁ70 of NO


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