
Will a poll say AI obsoleted human forecasters in 2024?
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1kṀ9566resolved Feb 1
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Dan Hendrycks (Director of the Center for AI Safety) claims:

Let's very generously extend the timeframe to "anytime in 2024", instead of "within a month" as claimed.
First I established a baseline poll here about last year, 2023:
I will repeat that exact poll about the year 2024, in 2025-Jan.
If >=50% of poll respondents say "Yes" for the 2024 version, then we'll say Dan Hendrycks was right. Otherwise we'll say Dan Hendrycks was wrong.
Results that are botted, hacked or manipulated won't count (I'd openly consult with the mods).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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