Were human forecasters obsoleted by AI in 2023?
202
resolved Mar 1
Yes, AIs have obsoleted human forecasters
No, human forecasters not obsoleted yet
This poll is to create a baseline about the past. Here is the context:
I will then repeat this exact poll in 2025-Jan, but for the year 2024. There is a market asking about the future results. This is a way to (very generously) give the claim a whole year's timeframe, instead of "within a month" as originally claimed.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@EliezerYudkowsky 😹😹😹 a fair point, if a bit reminiscent of "how can civilization know collectively how to turn people into dinosaurs"
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