Were human forecasters obsoleted by AI in 2023?

202

resolved Mar 1

Yes, AIs have obsoleted human forecasters

No, human forecasters not obsoleted yet

This poll is to create a baseline about the past. Here is the context:

I will then repeat this exact poll in 2025-Jan, but for the year 2024. There is a market asking about the future results. This is a way to (very generously) give the claim a whole year's timeframe, instead of "within a month" as originally claimed.

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Those on team Yes: Do you anticipate massive changes in geopolitical power balances this year? (I don't think these are necessarily linked, but they might be)

I can't say I love this new trend of taking dumb tweets and making markets about them.

@pietrokc How else can a civilization know collectively which tweets it believes to be dumb?

@EliezerYudkowsky 😹😹😹 a fair point, if a bit reminiscent of "how can civilization know collectively how to turn people into dinosaurs"

No, but it's very useful as a tool used by humans. Good analytics often involves ML (custom predictive models, not asking chatGPT), but it requires tuning the model, comparing it to expert opinions and fixing it when it spews nonsense.

**Fixed a typo; I will repeat this exact poll in 2025-Jan (not 2024-Jan) for 2024

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