Were human forecasters obsoleted by AI in 2023?
202
resolved Mar 1
Yes, AIs have obsoleted human forecasters
No, human forecasters not obsoleted yet
This poll is to create a baseline about the past. Here is the context:
I will then repeat this exact poll in 2025-Jan, but for the year 2024. There is a market asking about the future results. This is a way to (very generously) give the claim a whole year's timeframe, instead of "within a month" as originally claimed.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will AI be able to accurately predict natural disasters with a week's notice by 2030?
5% chance
When will AIs be good at predicting the future?
Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?
4% chance
Will humans wipe out AI by 2030?
6% chance
Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?
91% chance