If Conservatives win the 2025 U.K. general election, will an AI kill 10% of humans before 2032?
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10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
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"Win" refers to the Conservative party getting the most popular votes, in the next United Kingdom general election around 2024-Dec.
Doesn't count if the AI was just following human directions. E.g. if humans escalate to a nuclear war, and the launch process happens to involve an AI, that's not the spirit of the question. Focus is an accident, or an "unaligned" AI.
If instead another party wins the most votes, then we resolve this market N/A to refund the trades. We would then look to the sibling question:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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