If Republicans win the 2024 U.S. presidency, will an AI kill 10% of the human population before 2028?
13
113
250
2028
15%
chance

Doesn't count if the AI was just following human directions. E.g. if humans escalate to a nuclear war, and the launch process happens to involve an AI, that's not the spirit of the question. It should be an accident, or an "unaligned" AI.

If instead the Democrat wins the POTUS 2024 election, then we resolve this N/A to refund the trades. We would then look to the sibling question:

Get Ṁ600 play money
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Ah pasted in the same thing in both markets accidentally, fixed now.