Let's compile the List of Works of Fiction Depicting Prediction Markets!
Any media: Books, short stories, movies, audio dramas, manga, video games, etc.
Adaptations of the same story to different media (eg: book + audio book) generally count as just one work. If an adaptation is so loose as to be mostly an original story, I may decide to count it as two works.
Translations of one work into multiple languages count as one work.
The work must have some minimal engagement with prediction markets. For example, a character bets in one, or makes a choice based on information gleaned from the price or movement of a prediction market. Merely mentioning that prediction markets exist as a background detail isn't enough to count. Use as technobabble (eg: if the phrase "prediction market" could be replaced with "internet forum" without affecting the structure of the story) does not count.
Example stories that mention prediction markets only superficially, and so don't meet this requirement: "Onward to Providence: Alien Trucker with Goldfish Stowaways" and EagleJarl's "Team Anko".
Creating new prediction market fiction to move this market is allowed and encouraged.
Please don't spam chatbot-generated fluff. I reserve the right to exclude low-effort, not-very-good stories.
Market close timing chosen to accommodate NaNoWriMo. :)
Please don't delete or edit comments to remove listings to try to manipulate the count. It won't work: I'll be archiving the comments periodically and I'll re-post valid listings before resolving.
1,000
3.00In Pokemon The Origin of Species the main character meets a group that are building a prediction market for scientific research called Raikoth integrated within the Pokedex. Prediction markets might been mentioned at other points in the series as well.
It's been a while since I've read it so I might be misremembering some things but that was when I first started to really see the potential of prediction markets and I remember feeling pretty inspired after reading those chapters!
Pokemon: The Origin of Species depicts characters planning to create prediction markets. It doesn't depict prediction markets existing, being used, informing anyone of anything, or providing any incentive for any character to behave differently.
A novel use of prediction markets is gestured at (funding research), but not depicted in action nor specified in enough detail to clear the technobabble bar (eg: could just as easily have said it was a DAO).
... as of chapter 134. The story isn't finished, so I'll keep an eye on it for the next one, but it's unlikely to meet the inclusion criteria for this market.
But thanks for the link!
@ScottW All good, totally understandable. Out of curiosity did you read the chapters prediction markets were mentioned to make that assessment or had you previously read the series?
https://glowfic.com/posts/4508 but hurting people is wrong
A person isekai'd from a prediction-market-saturated culture encounters a precog & tries to work out the implications of mixing these.
(This is an example of a work close to the line of "The work must have some minimal engagement with prediction markets" and "Merely mentioning that prediction markets exist as a background detail isn't enough to count." I rule that it counts because there's some non-trivial engagement with the mechanisms of prediction markets.)
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HawFh7RvDM4RyoJ2d Three Worlds Collide
A prediction market is used as an Emergency Broadcast System.
(This is close to the "not just technobabble" line. I rule that it counts because it engages with the problem of winning a doom market.)
https://glowfic.com/posts/6263 for no laid course prepare
Using prediction markets for medical care. The drawbacks of non-public prediction markets.
A city's ruler uses prediction markets to guide their decisions. Elsewhere, prices of a secret project's internal prediction markets leak through supernatural means, becoming vital intelligence for deciding if/when to go to war.
https://glowfic.com/posts/6284 All space became a choir
A planet-scale catastrophe befalls dath ilan, which naturally perceives and reacts to the event through prediction markets.
https://glowfic.com/posts/7263 aviation is the most dangerous routine activity
An airplane in distress uses a prediction market to coordinate passenger helpfulness.
https://glowfic.com/posts/7873 crack therapy for crack relationships
Running a real-time prediction market to track how a couples' therapy session is going.