Will the first detected BSM particle's mass be above 1 GeV?
Jan 2, 2030
If a detection is widely contested, I will use my (somewhat conservative) discretion. In the event of no detection by close time, this will resolve to MKT.
@EvanConrad Then yes. But note that theories typically have free parameters, and therefore don't predict "there should be a BSM particle with mass 845.68 GeV", but rather "there might be a particle with these sorts of interactions, and masses between 120 MeV and 8 TeV haven't yet been ruled out by cosmological observations or other experiments". (This is a caricature. At the very least one must also keep track of interaction strengths, which are typically independent free parameters.) So, for example: WIMP dark matter. See PandaX (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PandaX) for one of many in-progress experiments. And here (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weakly_interacting_massive_particles#/media/File:CDMS_parameter_space_2004.png) is a probably-not-up-to-date exclusion plot.