If a detection is widely contested, I will use my (somewhat conservative) discretion. In the event of no detection by close time, this will resolve to MKT.
Any mass outside the range will just resolve to the appropriate limit.
The rough masses of various standard model particles:
0: photon, graviton (as far as we know)
< .12 eV: neutrino
500 KeV: electron
1 GeV: proton, neutron
125 GeV: Higgs
173 GeV: top quark (heaviest SM field)
Miscellaneous clarifications (all the rules about resolution that I think are unlikely, but I'd like to specify in advance to avoid people getting upset).
If two or more detections are announced simultaneously, I'll take the geometric mean of their masses. Particles that are massless get treated as 1eV in this procedure, just as they would be if detected alone.
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@JosephNoonan Huh? The top mass in the range is 1TeV. What SM particle is heavier than that?
@ScottLawrence The graph looks like it only goes up to 10 GeV. I think it's just an issue with how the graph is displayed on numeric markets, though.
@JosephNoonan ah. It displays that way for me on mobile but displays correctly on desktop
Open to suggestions about how this should resolve in the case of multiple simultaneous detections. Right now I'm planning on taking the geometric mean after truncating the masses to the range shown. So, if a massless particle and a 1GeV particle are announced in the same paper, this would resolve to ~30keV.
@LivInTheLookingGlass Why? Massless is only outside the range because I needed to pick some finite range, and figured that any discovery with mass ~1eV would be difficult to distinguish from massless anyway, so might as well draw the line there. This market is certainly not meant to ignore the possibility that the first discovery might be massless.
For instance, how should I resolve if the mass is reported as "0.5eV -0.3eV + 0.8eV"? So now the point estimate is under 1eV, but the error bars easily go above 1eV. Seems obvious that such a particle should be included.