Will Manifold arbitrage be automated by July?
8
111Ṁ1433resolved Jun 29
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
There are lots of arbitrage opportunities on Manifold---duplicate markets (like https://manifold.markets/AVS/will-russia-officially-declare-war and https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-russia-formally-declare-war-on-fae0c436ac66), or just closely related markets, or markets on manifold that match markets on metaculus, and so on.
Right now, people are doing this arbitrage work manually, whenever they notice that two probabilities are far enough out of sync to justify the investment. There's some profit to be made from automating the process. This will get easier when the official API supports trading, which is like to happen sometime in June: https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-manifold-markets-offer-a-publi-64ff5aaccc48.
This question will resolve YES if at any point from now through June 30, it becomes public knowledge that somebody has automated the arbitrage process in at least one case.
I've initialized the probability to 25% to give someone an opportunity to do some insider trading.
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