Will Manifold arbitrage be automated by July?
Will Manifold arbitrage be automated by July?
8
111Ṁ1433resolved Jun 29
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
There are lots of arbitrage opportunities on Manifold---duplicate markets (like https://manifold.markets/AVS/will-russia-officially-declare-war and https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-russia-formally-declare-war-on-fae0c436ac66), or just closely related markets, or markets on manifold that match markets on metaculus, and so on.
Right now, people are doing this arbitrage work manually, whenever they notice that two probabilities are far enough out of sync to justify the investment. There's some profit to be made from automating the process. This will get easier when the official API supports trading, which is like to happen sometime in June: https://manifold.markets/LarsTrieloff/will-manifold-markets-offer-a-publi-64ff5aaccc48.
This question will resolve YES if at any point from now through June 30, it becomes public knowledge that somebody has automated the arbitrage process in at least one case.
I've initialized the probability to 25% to give someone an opportunity to do some insider trading.
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I'd gladly implement something like this once the graphql api is available, it seems to much of a hassle without
predictedYES 2y
The broader idea I have is that you could draw your own graph of belief and change it in real time. The graph propagates probability across the network, and you could either enter your own probability for some markets, or draw from market probability. Then it buys/sell in function of your probability compared to that of the market's. Seems big, so I do not know when I will work on this.
But on a local scale, I'd probably just have a program that just implements limit order or something vaguely similar.
I think this should resolve Yes:
https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarketsUser/will-this-market-close-at-50
predictedYES 2y
predictedYES 2y
predictedYES 2y
predictedYES 2y
How would this even be possible? Questions almost never use the exact the same wording, and modern NLP isn't good enough to figure out whether two questions are asking the same thing.
Not to mention that most arbitragable questions aren't exactly the same, there are usually some minor differences in the resolution criteria or resolution date.
@IsaacKing The question resolves yes if the arbitrage process is automated in *at least one case*---not all cases. Meaning, that a human can identify two markets and say "these should always be within 5%" (for example), and then the automation is in charge of trading with that goal in mind.
@IsaacKing I mean, you could probably use a bayesnet to quantify how much each markets are dependent from each other. You input the graph and the program takes care of the rest
predictedNO 2y
predictedYES 2y
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