Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine before end of May 2022?
9%
chance
May 31
M$293 bet
Inspired by https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-03-22/h_28c9de8e10aca93d0d8d51b1bcd4b9a9 "Putin may soon officially declare war on Ukraine, US and Western officials say" May 3, 4:22pm: Did not see David Glidden's market https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-russia-formally-declare-war-on-fae0c436ac66 when created this one. Close date updated to 2022-06-01 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-06-01 12:00 am
brp

brp bought M$50 of NO17 days ago

Arbitraged to bring the two markets into agreement
Conflux

Conflux bought M$15 of YES25 days ago

arbitraging with other market