Will Bing surpass Google by 2030?
Will Bing surpass Google by 2030?
27
1kṀ5722030
21%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Bing search (or a closely related Bing product, like a bing-branded chatbot) surpasses Google in daily active users at any time before the end of 2030. (Averaged over a time period of a calendar month, so that bizarre short-term fluctuations don't count.)
I'll resolve, if it's available, based on https://www.statista.com/statistics/216573/worldwide-market-share-of-search-engines/. Otherwise I'll use the most similar trustworthy metric I can find.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Bing's market share of search passes google's by 2030
19% chance
Will Bing compete with Google?
16% chance
Bing's market share passes 10% by 2030 (it's 3.4% as of 12/22)
43% chance
Will Google Search still be the most popular search engine by 2030?
65% chance
Will Google Search still be the most popular search engine by 2040?
40% chance
When will a company surpass Google in terms of search marketshare?
Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?
45% chance
Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?
37% chance
Will Google still be a big tech giant by the end of 2030?
89% chance
Will Google disappear before 2034?
4% chance