Will any Russian civilians die in a drone attack in August?
80
722
1.6K
resolved Aug 29
Resolved
YES

Added 3 Aug: only citizens within the 2013 borders of Russia will count. See brief discussion in comments.

The spirit of this market: I'm trying to probe the nature of Ukraine's non-defensive operations.

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Thanks all for the sources!

I think the evidence is as good as it's likely to get. Two separate events reported, one from AFP and the other with a statement from a local governor. Any objection to resolving YES?

predicted YES

@ScottLawrence I think it was one event reported by multiple sources including AFP. But I believe that should still resolve this as YES.

@Akzzz123 No wait, I'm talking about Anton's link from just below. The guy cutting grass. That was just a couple days ago, and it's only one death. Separate event, right?

predicted YES

@ScottLawrence Yeah there are two separate events. They seemed like the same event since both reports are from Belgorod and originally sourced from the Belgorod Governor.

@Akzzz123 is there any source that isn't based off this governor? Any other primary source available?

predicted YES

@ScottLawrence I couldn't find any. But these have been reported by multiple Western and Ukrainian sources. Primary sources on such topics will mostly be from Russian officials.

@ScottLawrence there is different source with name and occupation of dead in last case. They refer to telegram channel also Russian, but more like a military journalists.

Aleksey Ch., deputy head of one of the departments of the regional UEBiPK (Regional Police), died after a Ukrainian drone dropped ammunition on his site in Shchetinovka. At that moment, Alexei was on a day off and mowed the lawn.

https://apa.az/ru/strani-snq/v-belgorodskoi-oblasti-rossii-pri-atake-bpla-pogib-oficer-policii-obnovleno-532578

predicted YES

As a result of the shelling of the village of Shchetinovka, Belgorod region, a civilian was killed. The Ukrainian armed forces dropped an explosive device from a drone when the man was on his dacha plot cutting grass.

Origin: Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov (Belgorod Region)

Mass media link (english): https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/08/27/russia-downs-two-drones-as-one-man-killed-near-border-a82259

Mass media link (russian): https://www.interfax.ru/russia/917979

Original Source ( Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov ):

https://tlgrm.ru/channels/@vvgladkov

@AntonSpiridonov Moscow times is a British sponsored mass media. Author of the post will not count it, not because it is not trustful source. Because he has option to lie

@AlexanderZ sorry I'm not able to parse this comment. Are you arguing for or against using Moscow times for resolution? "He" who has option to lie?

sold Ṁ64 of YES

@AlexanderZ where is always chance they lie, specifically as they refer males, it can be servicemen. Thought

  1. No obvious reason for them to do so.

  2. Requiring independent proof probably not possible in this case, as Russia is pretty closed, especially in war zone.

So I m for resolving as yes.

@ScottLawrence I meant post author ignores arguments. Today's more civilians deaths. :

🇷🇺🇺🇦 ВСУ нанесли удар по поселку Климово в Брянской области из РСЗО.

По сообщению губернатора, есть погибшие, среди которых — 10-летняя девочка, игравшая на площадке. Среди пяти пострадавших также присутствуют дети.

В поселке повреждены школа, несколько административных зданий и жилые дома, нарушено электроснабжение, некоторые строения загорелись. На месте работают оперативные службы, пострадавшим оказывают медицинскую помощь.

Инфографика в высоком разрешении

#Брянск #Россия #Украина
@rybar

Поддержать нас

@AlexanderZ so the original source on that is a different governor, right? Can you link me to where that text comes from?

I think it's moot though given the additional source Anton provided. Resolving.

@AbcDef881e I don't see why it wouldn't.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@ScottLawrence

@AbcDef881e It is not 100% clear the causalties were civilians, so that might be a reason to not count it...

@MartinModrak I'll wait, and look for updates in a few days.

bought Ṁ120 of YES

@ScottLawrence At least this page claims that they were, in fact, civilians: https://bel.ru/news/2023-08-23/stali-izvestny-podrobnosti-o-pogibshih-pri-atake-vsu-na-belgorodskiy-sanatoriy-3020420 "Two of the dead are refugees from the border, another is a worker at a sanatorium."

Naturally, one can doubt the article itself.

bought Ṁ200 of YES

@Tasty_Y Reported by AFP too.

bought Ṁ33 of NO

Who qualifies as a Russian civilian? Some people in e.g. Kherson were given Russian passports, do they count as Russian civilians?

@yar3yar3 If the Russian government considers them citizens, then yes.

@ScottLawrence just to clarify, this only counts on the territory claimed by the Russian federation, right? A Russian national killed by drone in Kyiv or in the middle east wouldn't count, would it?

@RatUziCat how about only within 2013 Russian borders?

@ScottLawrence that's clear enough for me

@RatUziCat edited description. Thanks for asking... I should have clarified at the beginning.

To all others, please ping me here or on discord if you made a bet that depended on the other interpretation. Happy to work out compensation.