In twenty years, the best evidence will suggest that sperm counts are substantially declining across most of the world | Manifold

In twenty years, the best evidence will suggest that sperm counts are substantially declining across most of the world

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26

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2043

64%

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bought Ṁ25 of NO here and Ṁ25 of YES on https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-twenty-years-will-the-best-evide since this seems either equivalent or very slightly weaker.

Not a pure arbitrage, since there's still risk that Noah and Scott will dissagree.

predicts NO

@JeffKaufman unless Scott or I lose our mind completely, unlikely.

Related questions

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor?

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In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

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Related questions

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor?

In 2030, what will consensus say is the primary cause of the decline in testosterone levels over the past few decades?

Will the causal factors for the global secular decline in men's testosterone levels become clear by 2028?

Will the WHO state that there is conclusive evidence that microplastics exposure reduces human fertility by 2026?