Inspired by this tweet: https://x.com/esyudkowsky/status/1873740847159845193?s=46&t=62uT9IruD1-YP-SHFkVEPg

This resolves YES if a scientific consensus (or even something halfway to a scientific consensus, like a leading theory that is covered substantially in the press, or several well-received, seemingly conclusive, and influential Nature/Science papers, etc) emerges that (1) testosterone levels are indeed declining on a societal level and this isn’t due to changing measurement standards, sampling bias in historical data, etc. and (2) microplastics are a leading cause (or one of several leading causes) of this.

Things that will not be sufficient for a resolution:

-studies showing that when you dose mice with high levels of microplastics, it affects their hormones (obviously it could)

-individual journal articles (even a large number of them) that conclude one way or the other on this matter (I’m sure there will be tons of these, don’t be a “man of a single study”), especially those of the current paradigm which make broad claims from pinpoint experiments or correlational studies

-a political consensus

-someone winning a large debate on this topic in one direction or the other

This could be a very subjective resolution, so I will obviously not be betting on this market. Currently, I would say that there is no convincing evidence of causation, and I am doubtful it will emerge. I am very open to changing my mind on this subject, however! I will also listen to other Manifold superusers for their input on this market, and will very likely not resolve against a community consensus.