Will there be an option to donate to the specific cause of distributing malaria vaccines, especially R21 Matrix M?
I've donate to the "Against Malaria Foundation" since they are recommended by Give well and could save a life for 5000 US$.
The newly approved R21 Matrix M vaccine has a proven 18 months efficacy of about 75% when given with a booster shot. Comparison: the earlier Version "RTS,S" has something like 30%.
The WHO now recommends the new vaccine and GAVI (the vaccine alliance) has launched a rollout program, with the first shipment arriving last month in the Central African Republics capital Bangui.
Will this cause GiveWell to reevaluate its non-recommendation of GAVI?
Or will they find another charity that distributes R21 more effectively?
Resolution criteria:
"Soon" = in three months on 10th September.
A charity is recommended by GiveWell that distributes R21 Matrix M (other Vaccines like RTS,S don't count).
The charity has to have a program to specifically donate R21-Vaccines, general "malaria vaccinations" don't count if I have to assume that part of the donation goes to RTS,S.
The charity doesn't have to be amongst the top charities. Just a recommended one.
Market conditions:
I haven't looked to deeply into the topic as of yet. E.g. I haven't sifted through GiveWell recommendations fully. So if you are willing to: here is your chance.
I am only aware of GAVI right now. But that is because I started my search at the WHO.
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@Schwabilismus hope you don't might the necropost, but you might be interested in this paper (not from GiveWell but they spoke to GiveWell so hopefully wouldn't contradict them?) recommending donation to Gavi, although it's not directly targeted at small donors. From the outside, it seems like the EA approvals process is surprisingly bureaucratic and takes years to update. I'm really missing a tweet from an official GiveWell account saying "it's unclear that our 2018 analysis that Gavi is sufficiently funded holds in 2025, so private donations could well be a good idea" or similar informal guidance.
https://www.cgdev.org/publication/avoiding-another-lost-decade-malaria-vaccines
@fwbt Ddn't know the term "necropost", thanks. Yeah, I created this market to get some people to think into exactly your direction.
I'm going to read the paper as soon as I have time to.
@MartinModrak was covid more severe than malaria in terms of QUALYs lost? I'd guess that COVID wasn't that huge of a deal in subsaharan Africa .
@Schwabilismus It was definitely a point in time where a lot of people would be interested in donating to vaccine-related causes and there was (maybe still is) a lot of uncertainty about the impacts. Without claiming anything about what the verdict should be, I think deciding not to update any info means this was very low priority for GiveWell.
@TsunombieTsunombie thanks for the heads up. Had the close-date from a precious market-draft:
https://manifold.markets/Schwabilismus/will-givewell-update-its-article-on?r=U2Nod2FiaWxpc211cw