Will Givewell recommend a charity distributing the New Malaria Vaccine "R21 Matrix M"?
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7
Ṁ937
resolved Sep 11
Resolved
NO

Will there be an option to donate to the specific cause of distributing malaria vaccines, especially R21 Matrix M?

I've donate to the "Against Malaria Foundation" since they are recommended by Give well and could save a life for 5000 US$.

The newly approved R21 Matrix M vaccine has a proven 18 months efficacy of about 75% when given with a booster shot. Comparison: the earlier Version "RTS,S" has something like 30%.

The WHO now recommends the new vaccine and GAVI (the vaccine alliance) has launched a rollout program, with the first shipment arriving last month in the Central African Republics capital Bangui.

Will this cause GiveWell to reevaluate its non-recommendation of GAVI?

Or will they find another charity that distributes R21 more effectively?

Resolution criteria:

  1. "Soon" = in three months on 10th September.

  2. A charity is recommended by GiveWell that distributes R21 Matrix M (other Vaccines like RTS,S don't count).

  3. The charity has to have a program to specifically donate R21-Vaccines, general "malaria vaccinations" don't count if I have to assume that part of the donation goes to RTS,S.

  4. The charity doesn't have to be amongst the top charities. Just a recommended one.

Market conditions:

  1. I haven't looked to deeply into the topic as of yet. E.g. I haven't sifted through GiveWell recommendations fully. So if you are willing to: here is your chance.

  2. I am only aware of GAVI right now. But that is because I started my search at the WHO.

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Since Covid wasn't enough to reevaluate since 2018,the baseline prob is pretty low IMHO

@MartinModrak was covid more severe than malaria in terms of QUALYs lost? I'd guess that COVID wasn't that huge of a deal in subsaharan Africa .

@Schwabilismus It was definitely a point in time where a lot of people would be interested in donating to vaccine-related causes and there was (maybe still is) a lot of uncertainty about the impacts. Without claiming anything about what the verdict should be, I think deciding not to update any info means this was very low priority for GiveWell.

I dunno. Malaria is a huge cause area, that's why the "Against Malaria Foundation" has always been among the top charities.

And vaccinations seem a good way to fight it. Problem was that until a few years ago there weren't any. And now there is a really good one.

bought Ṁ5 YES

(Should extend market close date.)

@TsunombieTsunombie thanks for the heads up. Had the close-date from a precious market-draft:

https://manifold.markets/Schwabilismus/will-givewell-update-its-article-on?r=U2Nod2FiaWxpc211cw

Will this resolve NO if there's no recommendation by September 10th, or do you plan to extend until they issue updated guidance for or against?

Sorry for late reply. That comment slipped past me.
I will not extend, but there will be a new market.