Resolution criteria

As of January 3, 2026, Nicolás Maduro was captured by U.S. forces and Vice-president Delcy Rodríguez was installed as acting president, leaving the timing of the next presidential election unclear. This market resolves YES if the next presidential election held in Venezuela meets international standards for free and fair elections. Resolution will be based on assessments from credible international election observation missions, including the Carter Center, UN Panel of Electoral Experts, and other recognized international observers. Key criteria include: transparent vote counting with disaggregated results published by polling station, absence of systematic fraud or irregularities, freedom of candidate registration and campaign activities, absence of widespread voter intimidation or repression, and media access for all candidates. Resolution will reference reports from these organizations and statements from major international bodies (EU, OAS, U.S. State Department, etc.).

The market will resolve NO if a presidential election is not held by the end of 2030.

Background

The most recent presidential election was held on July 28, 2024, where the CNE proclaimed Nicolás Maduro re-elected with 51.95% of valid ballots. The opposition published a parallel tally indicating a clear victory for opposition candidate Edmundo González, and several international organisations questioned the credibility of the official results and criticised the lack of detailed polling-station data and repression of post-electoral protests. The Carter Center concluded that Venezuela's 2024 presidential election did not meet international standards of electoral integrity and cannot be considered democratic, and the CNE's failure to announce disaggregated results by polling station constitutes a serious breach of electoral principles. International monitors called the 2024 election neither free nor fair, citing the incumbent Maduro administration's control over most institutions and repression of the political opposition before, during, and after the election.