Which parties or coalitions will gain seats in the 2024 French legislative election?
Basic
35
3.6k
resolved Jul 10
Resolved
YES
RN
Resolved
YES
NFP
Resolved
NO
PRG
Resolved
NO
UDC
Resolved
NO
Independents
Resolved
NO
Ensemble

French president Macron called for a snap election in the wake of today's EU vote: https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2024/0609/1453880-france-election/

If a coalition like Ensemble splits into multiple parties, I will try to get the answer N/Aed and create new answers for the constituent parties.

If a party or coalition gains seats, the option resolves YES. If a party's number of seats is the same or lower, the option resolves NO.

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@SaviorofPlant I'm not sure why I added PRG as an option - seems like this is a far-left party with zero seats? Anyone who knows about French politics want to chime in before I resolve NO?

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PRG

@SaviorofPlant What is this party? I think it would be clearer if you put the full names.

NFP

@SaviorofPlant I read something saying the left coalition won't be called NUPÉS this time. If there's a new name for a broadly similar coalition, I will rename this option to the new name.

Technically it's NFP (Same parties - "Nouveau Front Populaire") but apart from pedant I don't think it matters.

NFP hasn’t formed an alliance with Ensemble, leaving out Macron. The far-left is planning on trying to take seats from him.

Does this refer to the Senate or the National Assembly (or some combination thereof)?

@benshindel National Assembly

Projection from December 2023