Can someone explain why Bardella is trading so high? There’s a concept of “barrage” in France, wherein older voters will turn out in more important elections to block an ascendant extreme right. Meanwhile Bardella’s TikTok demographic doesn’t usually vote.

He would need at least a repeat of the 30% they got in the less consequential EU elections, and coalition build with a republicains party that is currently in mild disarray, and that would also need to win more than they won in EU. I’m also not sure how the republicains grab more centrists after committing so early to forming an alliance with RN.

The reality is the extreme right often maxes out turnout in low-consequence elections, so it’s hard to see them bettering their already surprisingly good score, which in itself, afaict, would have been insufficient to get Bardella to PM

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpvvlp096eko

Article 8 of the 5th republic constitution says that the president appoints the prime minister. It doesn't say anything about what percentage their political party should have in the legislative chamber.

https://www2.assemblee-nationale.fr/decouvrir-l-assemblee/textes-de-reference/constitution-du-4-octobre-1958/titre-ii

Yes but traditionally cohabitation only occurs if the opposing side is able to secure a parliamentary majority coalition. Even if they were to repeat their EU election numbers, they'd be hard-pressed to form a parliamentary majority.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cohabitation_(government)

Just added a lot of options. Feel free to suggest anyone if you think that's pertinent !

Great market

I made a similar market with more options if yall are interested https://manifold.markets/RealMoneyMarkets/next-prime-minster-of-france

Next Prime Minster of France

This market will resolve according to the next Prime Minster of France after the French Legislative Snap elections