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Okay I think the dust has settled now and this can be resolved

I’m giving one link to an article but there are dozens anyway

Michel Barnier was nominated Prime Minister of France

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqjlxvg2gj7o.amp

How long will Michel Barnier last? Bet now on the next hot french market! https://manifold.markets/VictorPoughon/will-michel-barnier-be-the-primer-m?r=VmljdG9yUG91Z2hvbg

@BrendanTroadec this may catch your interest

@Mich yep

Thierry Beaudet is suggested as highly plausible in l'Opinion:

https://www.lopinion.fr/politique/thierry-beaudet-a-matignon-la-surprise-du-chef

Bernard Cazeneuve should definitely be an option now.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/08/30/former-socialist-figure-emerges-as-serious-contender-for-french-pm_6723879_7.html

@ermitsou As should Xavier Bertrand @Mich

You may want to add Michel Cadot to the list

a few new names, left again : Benoît Hamon, Cécile Duflot, André Chassaigne

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique/nouveau-front-populaire/tractations-a-gauche-les-noms-de-benoit-hamon-cecile-duflot-et-andre-chassaigne-sont-desormais-sur-la-table_6680319.html

Maybe extend close date? unless this was intended

Thanks ! This was, indeed, not intended

A new name on the left side : Laurence Tubiana

Thanks, added !

« Other » remains high and new options keep spawn-crashing, any input is welcome and I may add options consecutively to input in comments

You might want to add Marine Tondelier (Green).

Added !

As I mentioned previously, Macron "refusing" Attal's "demission" today does NOT count as Attal being re-nominated.
Since I previously clearly stated that wouldn't count, I may start contributing myself to balancing this market (ie trade) starting July 8th, 7:00PM CET.
In case of a conflict due to today's Attal-related events, and in the event I have shares on this market, I will not consider me having shares being a legitimate reason for questioning the resolution, as this is the second time I declare what happened today DOES NOT trigger a Gabriel Attal YES-resolution.

Gabriel Attal is staying

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ck7gydwgvy8t

French election results 2024 live: Macron asks French PM to stay in role to 'ensure stability' after election

The French president asks Gabriel Attal to stay on as prime minister for now after he submitted his resignation.

In line with Mich's comment below, this might only be temporary so may not resolve it

Note : in accordance with some tradition, Gabriel Attal announced he would resign tomorrow. That resignation is more of a protocolar thing, and Emmanuel Macron can somehow refuse it, meaning Gabriel Attal remains PM for a certain time - basically until a government that reflects the new parliament composition and its potential alliances that were/will be formed is nominated. For this market, that would not count as a re-nomination.

Still confused. A good search keyword might be “désistement”. All the other political parties are united in stopping the far right. There is no world in which Macron deals with the RN to form a parliamentary majority

Can someone explain why Bardella is trading so high? There’s a concept of “barrage” in France, wherein older voters will turn out in more important elections to block an ascendant extreme right. Meanwhile Bardella’s TikTok demographic doesn’t usually vote.

He would need at least a repeat of the 30% they got in the less consequential EU elections, and coalition build with a republicains party that is currently in mild disarray, and that would also need to win more than they won in EU. I’m also not sure how the republicains grab more centrists after committing so early to forming an alliance with RN.

The reality is the extreme right often maxes out turnout in low-consequence elections, so it’s hard to see them bettering their already surprisingly good score, which in itself, afaict, would have been insufficient to get Bardella to PM

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpvvlp096eko

Article 8 of the 5th republic constitution says that the president appoints the prime minister. It doesn't say anything about what percentage their political party should have in the legislative chamber.

https://www2.assemblee-nationale.fr/decouvrir-l-assemblee/textes-de-reference/constitution-du-4-octobre-1958/titre-ii

Yes but traditionally cohabitation only occurs if the opposing side is able to secure a parliamentary majority coalition. Even if they were to repeat their EU election numbers, they'd be hard-pressed to form a parliamentary majority.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cohabitation_(government)