Emmanuel Macron just announced the dissolution of the Franch parliament. A new parliament is soon to be elected, and as a consequence a new Prime Minister should be designated. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/09/europe/macron-dissolves-french-parliament-europe-intl/index.html
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Okay I think the dust has settled now and this can be resolved
I’m giving one link to an article but there are dozens anyway
Michel Barnier was nominated Prime Minister of France
How long will Michel Barnier last? Bet now on the next hot french market! https://manifold.markets/VictorPoughon/will-michel-barnier-be-the-primer-m?r=VmljdG9yUG91Z2hvbg
Thierry Beaudet is suggested as highly plausible in l'Opinion:
https://www.lopinion.fr/politique/thierry-beaudet-a-matignon-la-surprise-du-chef
Bernard Cazeneuve should definitely be an option now.
a few new names, left again : Benoît Hamon, Cécile Duflot, André Chassaigne
As I mentioned previously, Macron "refusing" Attal's "demission" today does NOT count as Attal being re-nominated.
Since I previously clearly stated that wouldn't count, I may start contributing myself to balancing this market (ie trade) starting July 8th, 7:00PM CET.
In case of a conflict due to today's Attal-related events, and in the event I have shares on this market, I will not consider me having shares being a legitimate reason for questioning the resolution, as this is the second time I declare what happened today DOES NOT trigger a Gabriel Attal YES-resolution.
Gabriel Attal is staying
Note : in accordance with some tradition, Gabriel Attal announced he would resign tomorrow. That resignation is more of a protocolar thing, and Emmanuel Macron can somehow refuse it, meaning Gabriel Attal remains PM for a certain time - basically until a government that reflects the new parliament composition and its potential alliances that were/will be formed is nominated. For this market, that would not count as a re-nomination.
Can someone explain why Bardella is trading so high? There’s a concept of “barrage” in France, wherein older voters will turn out in more important elections to block an ascendant extreme right. Meanwhile Bardella’s TikTok demographic doesn’t usually vote.
He would need at least a repeat of the 30% they got in the less consequential EU elections, and coalition build with a republicains party that is currently in mild disarray, and that would also need to win more than they won in EU. I’m also not sure how the republicains grab more centrists after committing so early to forming an alliance with RN.
The reality is the extreme right often maxes out turnout in low-consequence elections, so it’s hard to see them bettering their already surprisingly good score, which in itself, afaict, would have been insufficient to get Bardella to PM
Article 8 of the 5th republic constitution says that the president appoints the prime minister. It doesn't say anything about what percentage their political party should have in the legislative chamber.
https://www2.assemblee-nationale.fr/decouvrir-l-assemblee/textes-de-reference/constitution-du-4-octobre-1958/titre-ii
Yes but traditionally cohabitation only occurs if the opposing side is able to secure a parliamentary majority coalition. Even if they were to repeat their EU election numbers, they'd be hard-pressed to form a parliamentary majority.
