Resolution criteria

The election will be held in April 2027, with a second round two weeks later if no candidate secures a majority vote. The market resolves YES if the winner of the 2027 French presidential election is a member of the Parti Socialiste (PS). Resolution will be based on official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Background

Relations between France Insoumise and the Parti Socialiste are at rock bottom, with PS First Secretary Olivier Faure stating there will be no national pact with France Insoumise in the 2027 presidential elections. Several leftist groups have announced a primary in October 2026 to pick a united left candidate under the banner 'Front Populaire', with representatives from the Parti Socialiste, the Greens, and the Communists participating. However, La France Insoumise has already said that it won't participate in the united left primary.

Considerations

Recent polls from February 2026 indicate Jordan Bardella (Rassemblement National) leading first-round voting intentions, ahead of center candidates Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal. Raphaël Glucksmann remains the best-performing Socialist candidate, attracting about a quarter of the New Popular Front electorate from the 2024 legislative elections. The PS has not fielded a successful presidential candidate since 2012, and the party's current standing in polls is substantially weaker than the far-right National Rally and centrist candidates.

This description was generated by AI.