[French snap legislative 2024] RN has absolute majority (including in electoral union with other parties)
50
1kṀ21k
resolved Jul 8
Resolved
NO
@f3to This will resolves Yes. I'll edit the text and title accordingly. My rationale is that the parties susceptible to make such an alliance (Zemmour/Maréchal's party, Dupont-Aignan or even Les Républicains) will in any case win a negligible amount of seats compared to RN, and that the most real-life relevant question underlying this market is whether they will get to rule the country.

Resolves Yes if the RN (Rassemblement National) party wins enough seats to have an absolute majority in the Assemblée national in the upcoming 2024 snap legislative election, either alone or as part of a coalition/electoral union with other party. An union will count if they present one candidate per seat race from the union, rather than one separate candidate for each parties. There's no need to be formal common manifesto or agenda, just the aforementioned kind of electoral pact.

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