[French snap legislative 2024] RN has absolute majority (including in electoral union with other parties)
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Jul 5
28%
chance
@f3to This will resolves Yes. I'll edit the text and title accordingly. My rationale is that the parties susceptible to make such an alliance (Zemmour/Maréchal's party, Dupont-Aignan or even Les Républicains) will in any case win a negligible amount of seats compared to RN, and that the most real-life relevant question underlying this market is whether they will get to rule the country.

Resolves Yes if the RN (Rassemblement National) party wins enough seats to have an absolute majority in the Assemblée national in the upcoming 2024 snap legislative election, either alone or as part of a coalition/electoral union with other party. An union will count if they present one candidate per seat race from the union, rather than one separate candidate for each parties. There's no need to be formal common manifesto or agenda, just the aforementioned kind of electoral pact.

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Ah thanks for pointing that out! Sorry if mine is a duplicate—in my defense, browse was down when I was creating the market so tbh I couldn't check if it already existed. Mine is a clone of the Polymarket criteria, so I'm not sure if it diverges at all with yours. (Actually, it's nice to have both—I paid for the 10k liquidity in mine if anyone wants larger bets but it'll close early so I get some of it back, while yours will allow live trading, so both are nice to have).

I'm starting a dashboard here: https://manifold.markets/news/french-elections. I'll add some more sources & etc—please LMK if there are any relevant markets that I missed!

No problem, I'm happy to have a market to trade on without any hint of resolution conflict of interest.

How this resolves if RN forms(or as i have read already formed) coalition with someone else and then wins absolute majority?

@f3to This will resolves Yes in that case. I'll edit the text and title accordingly.

My rationale is that the parties susceptible to make such an alliance (Zemmour/Maréchal's party, Dupont-Aignan or even Les Républicains) will in any case win a negligible amount of seats compared to RN, and that the most real-life relevant question underlying this market is whether they will get to rule the country.