What approval ratings will Trump have on FiveThirtyEight in the first month of his second term?
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10
Ṁ1147Feb 21
64%
52% approve
60%
48% approve
60%
50% approve
51%
55% approve
48%
42% approve
44%
45% approve
22%
39% approve
20%
58% approve
14%
61% approve
On February 21st, I will take the highest and lowest approval value for the period between January 20 and February 20 on FiveThirtyEight's Trump approval tracker. Every answer in between those values resolves YES. Every answer outside those values resolves NO.
If the approval tracker doesn't go up in this period, every answer resolves NO. (It is not currently active.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Trump's current favorability is floating around 46-47%, but that doesn't translate directly to approval numbers.
This is an experimental market idea. To some extent we're trying to predict a random walk, but I think it'll be interesting to see how much these numbers follow the typical trends.
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