Background
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), an extremely severe cyclonic storm is defined as a tropical cyclone that has 3-minute mean maximum sustained wind speeds between 90–119 knots (165–220 km/h; 105–135 mph). It is roughly equivalent to a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane to a low-end Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale.
As of September 5, 2023, there were two extremely severe cyclonic storms that were active in the North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone basin during 2023. They were Mocha and Biparjoy, active in May and June respectively.
A North Indian Ocean cyclone season typically lasts from April to December, peaking around May to November. The season has a double peak, one around May and one around October. This is because the monsoon low and upper tropospheric high during monsoon season tends to tear apart cyclones due to high wind shear despite other favourable conditions.
Notably, 2023 has been a fairly energetic season in the North Indian Ocean so far, with an ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) of 41.5, which puts it at spot number 5 on record, even though the season has not formally concluded.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if a cyclone in the North Indian Ocean strengthens into an extremely severe cyclonic storm before the end of 2023. The condition will also be fulfilled if the cyclone rapidly intensifies into a super cyclonic storm, the category above extremely severe cyclonic storms.
Resolves NO if no such cyclone forms in the North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone basin before the end of 2023.
In the rare case in which a tropical cyclone crosses basin into the North Indian Ocean basin, such as Typhoon Hope, the condition for YES will only be satisfied if the IMD duly characterises the cyclone as an extremely severe cyclonic storm in its announcements.
Will resolve based on IMD data, supplemented with JTWC data if necessary.
I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ200 in as subsidy.
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Still waiting on IMD's RSMC to upgrade to 'extremely severe' (still have it at 'very severe') .... got to go to sleep. CIRA's satcon shows it well above 90 supported by 2 out of 3 ATMS measurements and objective and subjective Dvorak and still expected to strengthen further according to forecasts. On top of JTWC also already rating it extremely severe already.
JTWC issued a new advisory, keeping it at 105 kt, but now forecasting an increase to 125 kt in 12 hours:
WTIO31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (TEJ) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (TEJ) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 12.0N 55.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 55.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.1N 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT@parhizj If Tej strengthens above 120 kt, it will be the third Super Cyclonic Storm in the North Indian Ocean basin in four years... and the peak of cyclonic activities will still persist into November.
@parhizj It's not guaranteed that IMD will upgrade it to ESCS, but I think it will maintain a strong enough intensity long enough that they probably will. Especially since they have forecasted it.
Less than one hour before the forecasted raise to ESCS by IMD.
@SarkanyVar Done. So should resolve YES now I believe:
"
(A) VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “TEJ” (PRONOUNCED AS TEJ) INTENSIFIED INTO EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER WESTCENTRAL & ADJOINING SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA. THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ―TEJ‖ (PRONOUNCED AS TEJ) OVER WESTCENTRAL & ADJOINING SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA INTENSIFIED INTO AN EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 16 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 22ND OCTOBER OVER THE SAME REGION, NEAR LATITUDE 12.3°N AND LONGITUDE 55.4°E ABOUT 160 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA (YEMEN), 540 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN, 41316) AND 550 KM SOUTHEAST OF AL GHAIDAH (YEMEN, 41398). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS YEMEN-OMAN COASTS BETWEEN AL GHAIDAH (YEMEN, 41398) & SALALAH (OMAN, 41316), CLOSE TO EAST OF AL GHAIDAH (YEMEN, 41398 ) AROUND 0600 UTC OF 24TH OCTOBER AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH WIND SPEED OF 115-125 KMPH GUSTING TO 140 KMPH."
Also here in the national bulletin from IMD:
Deleted.
At 105 kt now per JTWC:
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/io0523web.txt
WTIO31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (TEJ) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (TEJ) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 11.4N 56.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 56.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.5N 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.6N 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.6N 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.4N 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.5N 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.6N 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 56.3E. 21OCT23.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (TEJ), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
366 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 211800Z IS 958 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 36 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.//
NNNN
Tej (65kt), which is apparently aptly named since Tej (तेज) can also mean acceleration (or used with other words to indicate a sharp rise), as the storms speeds are forecast to accelerate upwards to 115 kt in 24 hours, per JTWC:
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.0N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KTCIRA's RI probabilities:
has the probability of this resolving YES at ~85%:
25kt / 24h 84.6% 85.8% 85.2%AOML not working right now for me, but HAFSA page shows HAFS and GFS both reaching above 90kt now:
As it is now less than 24 hours away... I am increasing my bet.
JTWC forecasts TC5 reaching 115 kt in 2 days. Prognostic reasoning is very detailed:
WDIO31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 9.8N 60.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 571 NM SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW
FUELING INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS (VORTICAL HOT TOWERS) AND STRONG
CYCLONIC ROTATION WITHIN THE CORE, INDICATIVE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(RI) ONSET. A 201417Z SSMIS 91 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED,
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
ON INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 201800Z
CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 201800Z
CIMSS DPRINT: 42 KTS AT 201800Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST TAU 60, TC 05A IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72, SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OFF THE ARABIAN PENINSULA WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF YEMEN AND OMAN AND TRACKS INLAND.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 90 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU
72. AFTER TAU 72, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK. THE MAJORITY OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL POLEWARD RECURVE.
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS RI THROUGH TAU 48. SPECIFICALLY,
THE 201200Z COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) ENSEMBLE INTENSITY PROBABILITY
CHART INDICATES PEAK PROBABILITIES OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT FROM TAU 18 TO
TAU 54. ADDITIONALLY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE HAS TRIGGERED
SUPPORTING THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNNJTWC Prognostic reasoning has it at 110 kt in 36 hours:
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05A WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IT IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 36.
AFTERWARD SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR INTRUSION OFF THE ARABIAN PENINSULA
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN COAST OF
YEMEN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 AFTER LANDFALL.
From CIRA's RI table: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2023io05/ripastbl/2023io05_ripastbl_202310210600.txt
Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS
20kt / 12h 53.7% 45.3% 49.5%
25kt / 24h 85.7% 88.1% 86.9%
30kt / 24h 70.6% 86.5% 78.5%
35kt / 24h 61.1% 86.5% 73.8%
40kt / 24h 61.1% 84.9% 73.0%
45kt / 36h 62.0% 82.3% 72.2%
55kt / 36h 0.0% 70.5% 35.2%
55kt / 48h 44.7% 60.5% 52.6%
70kt / 48h 24.7% 44.4% 34.6%
65kt / 72h 29.5% 27.4% 28.5%Late guidance from 00Z (HAFS&COAMPS-TC show it resolving YES; GFS NO)
It is still not at Hurricane strength yet though (55 kt as of last warning).
This one is giving me Mekunu flashbacks. If HAFS holds up, this will fall apart before landfall, though. One of the earlier runs had dragged this up along the coast at Cat I-II strength, that would have been catastrophic.
Mekunu some 40-ish hours before landfall for reference:
Invest 90 is now TC 5
Forecast to be 100 kt in 48 hours (that is a RI of 65 kt in 48 hours, from the present 35kt)
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/io0523web.txt
GFS 06Z has actually tempered its predictions with a track that takes it more west, but COAMPS-TC and HAFSA still show above 90kt:
COAMPS-TC does show it on the same track until about tau 72h, and then diverging west. GFS and HAFS are in agreement of it likely landfalling in Oman at TS or Hurricane strength with late guidance:
GEFS 06Z track that is slightly to the west of the one I looked at 12 hours ago (18Z); it has less favorable conditions for reaching above 90kt (more shear, lower SSTs):
The fixes in the best track were slightly west and farther equatorward than the 18Z run from yesterday. It also has slightly cooler SSTs on its approach
Compare SSTs and track from 06Z (now showing :
to 18Z from yesterday:
Watching Invest 90 in the Arabian Sea ...
(barbs in m/s above)
Genesis is at 68% in 7 days per FSU:
IMD is forecasting it will likely become a TD around Oct. 21.
GFS and NAVGEM indicate a strong hurricane in the forecast (ICON and GEM (CMC) are less bullish)
NAVGEM Surface (not 10m) wind speeds (scale only goes up to 75 kt):
GFS 06Z shows it could reach the severe cyclonic categorizatoin:
ICON and GEM (CMC) show TC's not as strong as the GFS/NAVGEM:
GFS and NAVGEM both have the system moving over a stretch of warm waters in the Arabian sea, on a more N then NE track compared to the other models (from FSU):
Other models show it moving more west and not as strong:
JTWC issued its first notice about the system (they’ve numbered it 91A)
ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZOCT2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.6N
65.9E, APPROXIMATELY 704 NM EAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 181330Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH, WRAPPING INTO A GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 181714Z METOP-B
ASCAP PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY OVAL CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH SPARSE AREAS
OF 15-20KT WINDS IN THE NORTH AND SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 91A IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION
DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SST, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD WHILE
INTENSIFYING OVER THE SOMALI CURRENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
GFS 12Z also shows above 100kt winds
GFS 0Z shows it above 90kt, but I believe it is the only model that does...
NAVGEM now shows it no longer following the similar track as GFS, and instead making landfall near the Yemen/Oman, but seemingly not as an extremely severe cyclonic storm (given its SLP in the 960s, while GFS has it stronger in the 950s):
NAVGEM scale only goes up to 75kt:
ICON and CMC also show landfall, but apparently as storms weaker than 90kt.
JTWC upgraded 91A chances of a significant TC to medium:
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.6N 65.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 62.1E, APPROXIMATELY 522 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
190559Z ASCAT METOP-C PASS DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A 20 KT AREA OF WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHER PERIPHERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 91A IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SST, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.HAFS and GFS both now show a strong storm. FSU genesis is at 82% (5days). Edit HAFS is off quite a bit for CI though.
Haven't had much time to look at the data.
91A genesis chances upgraded to HIGH per JTWC, issuing a warning for TC formation alert:
WTIO21 PGTW 200200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91A)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1N 62.1E TO 11.9N 57.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 102000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3N 61.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.1N 61.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 61.8E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 192155Z
NOAA20 183GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION CENTERED OVER A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH ELONGATED
CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 91A IS IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO
WARM (30-31C) SST, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 91A WILL CONTINUE
ALONG A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210200Z.
//
NNNNFSU shows genesis at 80% in 48h and 88% in 5 days.
Coamps-TC output came out, and now shows a very strong storm ( ~120kt ):
Track for COAMPS-TC and AVNO (GFS)
