Background
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Tej is a tropical cyclone currently in the North Indian ocean, predicted to move towards the Arabian peninsula, threatening Yemen and parts of Oman. It is currently at a strength equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane.
Some forecasts predicted Tej to rapidly intensify later, and then decrease in strength as Tej approaches the southern Arabian coast.
According to the India Meteorological Department, the rough equivalent to a lower-end tropical storm is the cyclonic storm, with a wind speed of 34-47 kt.
Will Tej therefore make landfall as a cyclonic storm or stronger?
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Tej makes landfall anywhere as a cyclonic storm or stronger, including Socotra. according to India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Resolves NO if no such information can be found from the IMD before the dissipation, degeneration below cyclonic storm strength, or extratropical transition of Tej.
Will resolve based on IMD data, with supplemented data from JTWC if necessary. I will not bet on this market.
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According to an announcement from IMD posted on Twitter/X, Tej has made landfall over the Yemeni coast south of Al Ghaidah around 0230-0330 IST (2130-2230 UTC on the 23rd) as a VSCS. This means the conditions for a resolution of YES has been satisfied. I will leave this market open for another hour for any comments or objections, then I will resolve this market as YES if there isn't any.
@SarkanyVar And SCS. Manifold wasn't letting me edit the message because clicking the edit button led me to the link to the market behind it.
