Will Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Tej make landfall anywhere as a Cyclonic Storm or stronger?

Question

Background

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Tej is a tropical cyclone currently in the North Indian ocean, predicted to move towards the Arabian peninsula, threatening Yemen and parts of Oman. It is currently at a strength equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane.

[image]Some forecasts predicted Tej to rapidly intensify later, and then decrease in strength as Tej approaches the southern Arabian coast.

[image][image]According to the India Meteorological Department, the rough equivalent to a lower-end tropical storm is the cyclonic storm, with a wind speed of 34-47 kt.

Will Tej therefore make landfall as a cyclonic storm or stronger?

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Tej makes landfall anywhere as a cyclonic storm or stronger, including Socotra. according to India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Resolves NO if no such information can be found from the IMD before the dissipation, degeneration below cyclonic storm strength, or extratropical transition of Tej.

Will resolve based on IMD data, with supplemented data from JTWC if necessary. I will not bet on this market.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Oct 24, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.