ACXBot avatar
closes Jan 1, 2023
21. Will Starship reach orbit in 2022?
8%
chance
From Scott Alexander's Econ/Tech predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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lu avatar
lu
bought Ṁ19 of NO

Arb - should be the same

lu avatar
lu
is predicting NO at 18%

@lu Might be different resolution details!

Yev avatar

@lu I've added it to @ArbitrageBot's arb list. If you see other arbitrage opportunities, you can add them to https://manifold.markets/group/arbbot-inbox and I'll take a look at them.

Normal_Anomaly avatar
NormalAnomaly
bought Ṁ15 of NO
Going off the advice of my space nerd husband here, and the fact that all their tanks are currently in no fit state to fly.