21. Will Starship reach orbit in 2022?
57
45
562
resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO
From Scott Alexander's Econ/Tech predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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bought Ṁ19 of NO

Arb - should be the same

predicted NO

@lu Might be different resolution details!

@lu I've added it to @ArbitrageBot's arb list. If you see other arbitrage opportunities, you can add them to https://manifold.markets/group/arbbot-inbox and I'll take a look at them.

bought Ṁ15 of NO
Going off the advice of my space nerd husband here, and the fact that all their tanks are currently in no fit state to fly.