Will Starship reach orbit by the end of 2022?

8%

chance

This market will resolve as yes, if, by January 1st, 2023, a SpaceX Starship (or renamed equivalent) launched in 2022 will enter a stable orbit around the Earth. Reentry and landing are not required.

Aug 2, 9:14pm: Note: actually completing the orbit without failing is unnecessary, this is based on extrapolated trajectories at any point in the flight.

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The plan for the first launch is for Starship not to enter orbit but to make a 3/4 loop around the Earth (launch from Texas, land near Hawaii) so at least 1 more launch will be necessary for this to be resolved YES in my opinion.

I am trying to arbitrage between this and https://manifold.markets/NathanYoung/will-spacexs-starship-complete-one. In theory I should net 47 if both resolve YES (48 from the other market, -1 from this one) or 164 if NO (-40 from other market, 174 from this one). Lets see if the predicted payouts work.

YES shares

143

139

76

53

22

14

NO shares

274

161

112

93

74

46

42

37

15

13

11