Will Starship reach orbit by the end of 2022?

Ṁ5.5K

Ṁ523

resolved Jan 1

Resolved

ALL

This market will resolve as yes, if, by January 1st, 2023, a SpaceX Starship (or renamed equivalent) launched in 2022 will enter a stable orbit around the Earth. Reentry and landing are not required.

Aug 2, 9:14pm: Note: actually completing the orbit without failing is unnecessary, this is based on extrapolated trajectories at any point in the flight.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ173
2		Ṁ159
3		Ṁ100
4		Ṁ55
5		Ṁ48

6 Comments

49 Holders

337 Trades

Sort by:

bought Ṁ30 of NO

arb - should be the same

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Arbing https://manifold.markets/SamuelMillerick/will-spacex-launch-a-starship-into

bought Ṁ20 of NO

Betting the polymarket probability

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Arbing

bought Ṁ50 of NO

The plan for the first launch is for Starship not to enter orbit but to make a 3/4 loop around the Earth (launch from Texas, land near Hawaii) so at least 1 more launch will be necessary for this to be resolved YES in my opinion.

bought Ṁ1 of NO

I am trying to arbitrage between this and https://manifold.markets/NathanYoung/will-spacexs-starship-complete-one. In theory I should net 47 if both resolve YES (48 from the other market, -1 from this one) or 164 if NO (-40 from other market, 174 from this one). Lets see if the predicted payouts work.