Great market!

I reckon more likely than not they'll do it. Apparently there's something like 10-15 years remaining before Hubble would re-enter in an uncontrolled manner, so that's how long they have to decide whether to boost or de-orbit, both of which would require a vehicle to provide the push.

It's currently 2024 and Hubble is still functional, so given a launch is needed in either case, it seems reasonable to expect a boost is more likely than a deorbit, as long as Hubble remains functional or reasonably serviceable.

We can hope. NRO is still flying KH-11s, albeit upgraded, so maybe there's demand for proving service capability. It wouldn't be the first time people decided to just roll the dice on uncontrolled re-entry though.

How successful would the mission have to be? E.g. if it docked but couldn't fire thrusters would that count?

@Isaac228c For this market there just needs to be "a mission", I'm mostly trying to gauge if such a thing will be funded and attempted. If one does get funded, I'd probably make a market about "Will X Hubble reboost mission be successful". For this market, I'll say a "Hubble reboost spacecraft" has to launch for it to resolve yes. It just to leave the surface of the Earth on an orbital rocket with Hubble as a destination.

Mostly this is because "Success" is hard or impossible to clearly define before there's an actual mission profile.

@Sailfish makes sense thanks