Does the US take control of Kharg Island (Iran) with boots on the ground even just for an hour before ... (UTC)?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States takes control of Kharg Island for at least an hour before the specified deadline. Control is defined as US military forces establishing and maintaining physical presence on the island with the ability to direct operations. Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major news outlets, official US government statements, or documented military operations. The market resolves NO if the deadline passes without such control being established.

Background

Kharg Island is a 5-mile strip of land that serves as Iran's most important oil facility, an export terminal in the Persian Gulf that handles up to 90 percent of the nation's crude. The island is one of the most strategically sensitive points in the global oil network. Recommendations to seize Kharg have been circulated within the National Security Council. The 2026 war began with joint airstrikes by Israel and the US against military and government sites in Iran on February 28, 2026.

Considerations

The island was briefly occupied in 1838 by the British to block the Siege of Herat but was soon returned. During the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, President Jimmy Carter was advised that seizing Kharg could provide leverage against the regime but chose not to act. President Ronald Reagan destroyed other offshore export facilities in the 1980s but left Kharg untouched.

This description was generated by AI and slightly edited.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Before 2027, followed by Before June 2026 and Before May 2026 are most likely. See the market for live updates (32 traders, as of Apr 12, 2026).